RESEARCH ARTICLE
Daqing Crude Oil Price Forecast Based on the ARIMA Model
Li Quan*
Department of Economics and
Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei,
071000, P.R. China.
Article Information
Identifiers and Pagination:
Year: 2015Volume: 8
First Page: 457
Last Page: 462
Publisher Id: TOPEJ-8-457
DOI: 10.2174/1874834101508010457
Article History:
Received Date: 26/5/2015Revision Received Date: 14/7/2015
Acceptance Date: 10/8/2015
Electronic publication date: 22/10/2015
Collection year: 2015
© 2015 Quan et al.;
open-access license: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0), a copy of which is available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode. This license permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
open-access license: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0), a copy of which is available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode. This license permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Abstract
Oil is the lifeblood of the industrial economy, oil prices are affected by many factors. China is a major industrial country, changes in the price of oil will affect many aspects of economic development, and therefore the price of crude oil research is extremely important. In this paper, monthly average prices of crude oil in Daqing from January 2000 to December 2010 are utilized to do the research. Based on ARIMA model by building software using EVIEWS, rule of oil price movements is found and a prediction of oil price is made using the data from the first 10 months of 2011.
Keywords: ARIMA model , Crude oil prices, forecast.
