RESEARCH ARTICLE


Daqing Crude Oil Price Forecast Based on the ARIMA Model



Li Quan*
Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei, 071000, P.R. China.


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© 2015 Quan et al.;

open-access license: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0), a copy of which is available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode. This license permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Correspondence: * Address correspondence to this author at the Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei, 071000, P.R. China; Tel: +8613020806889; E-mail: 13020806889@163.com


Abstract

Oil is the lifeblood of the industrial economy, oil prices are affected by many factors. China is a major industrial country, changes in the price of oil will affect many aspects of economic development, and therefore the price of crude oil research is extremely important. In this paper, monthly average prices of crude oil in Daqing from January 2000 to December 2010 are utilized to do the research. Based on ARIMA model by building software using EVIEWS, rule of oil price movements is found and a prediction of oil price is made using the data from the first 10 months of 2011.

Keywords: ARIMA model , Crude oil prices, forecast.