Practical Considerations for Well Performance Analysis and Forecasting in Shale Plays

D. Ilk1, *, T. A. Blasingame2, O. Houzé3
1 DeGolyer and MacNaughton, 5001 Spring Valley Rd. Suite 800 East, Dallas, Texas, USA
2 Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA
3 Kappa Engineering, Mougins, France

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© Ilk et al.; Licensee Bentham Open.

open-access license: This is an open access article licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial 4.0 International Public License (CC BY-NC 4.0) (, which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the work is properly cited.

* Address correspondence to this author at the DeGolyer and MacNaughton, 5001 Spring Valley Rd. Suite 800 East, USA; E-mail:


Analysis and forecasting of well performance data in unconventional reservoirs is and will likely remain problematic as there is considerable uncertainty related to our current lack of understanding of the fluid flow phenomenon in low/ultra-low permeability reservoir systems.There are many unknowns which are the primary sources of the uncertainty on production performance.To name a few, these can be stated as the link between flow in nano scale and macro scale, effect of natural fractures and stress fields/geomechanics, pressure/stress dependent dynamic reservoir properties (e.g., permeability), Pressure-volume-temperature (PVT) properties at nano scale, extent of drainage area, etc. Recently, a great amount of research has been performed to understand and relate these issues to well performance analysis and forecasting, but still no conclusive answer has been provided.The objective of this paper is to briefly discuss the specifics of flow in low permeability systems and models to represent well performance then present a methodology to analyze and forecast production data.

Keywords: Decline curves, Diffusion equations, Flow regimes, Fluid-flow phenomenon, Shale plays.